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Re: NHẬN ĐỊNH THỊ TRƯỜNG HÀNG NGÀY - THÁNG 6 NĂM 2008



Các bác chưa đọc bài báo của The Times à, tôi để tôi post luôn vậy : link đây http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle4127593.ece



Đọc xong tôi nghĩ mình cũng nên giữ vững kỷ luật như bác Bacnt, cố gắng
không để lòng tham nó động đậy, ngồi ngoài ngó cho hết tháng 7



From Times Online

June 13, 2008
[h1]Vietnam on brink of Thai baht-style currency crisis of 1997[/h1]


Rhys Blakely, Bombay




Vietnam, until recently a poster child among emerging economies, is
on the brink of a currency collapse, which would mirror the rout of the
Thai baht that sparked the Asian crisis in 1997.


This week the State Bank of Vietnam effectively devalued the dong 2
per cent against the dollar, a move that analysts said was designed to
head off a speculative attack on the embattled currency.


The move highlighted concerns that Vietnam, where consumer price
inflation is running at more than 25 per cent, is poised to suffer an
exodus of foreign-controlled capital.


The nation's benchmark equities index has lost 60 per cent of its
value since January, making it the world's worst performing stock
market. Vietnam's trade deficit for the year to May, at $14.4 billion
(£7.4 billion), exceeds the $12.4 billion shortfall for 2007.

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[h3]Related Links[/h3]






[*] Vietnam rides a mass-affluent boom [/list]
[*] Prudential launches consumer loans in Vietnam [/list]
[*] Brits ride the Vietnam tiger [/list]







Claire Innes, at Global Insight, said: "The weakening of the currency is principally aimed at preventing speculative attacks."


Matthew Hildebrandt, an economist at JP Morgan, said the move "will
embolden the view that Vietnam is on the verge of a [balance of
payments] crisis and larger devaluation."


On the streets of Vietnam's cities, there has been growing disquiet
over the fate of the dong. Vietnam's black-market currency exchange
rate has reportedly jumped to a record high of more than 18,000 dong to
the dollar - above last week's official rate of 16,268.


Sherman Chan, at Moody's economy.com, said: "A sense of déja vu and
fears of sky-rocketing inflation are causing individuals and merchants
to hoard rice, cement and steel, a return to old habits formed back
when annual inflation exceeded 60 per cent."


She added that inflationary pressures has prompted a stampede into
gold: "The price of gold has tended to be a reliable proxy for the
public's assessment of the Government's ability to stabilize the
economy. Gold's price in recent months underscores their stunning lack
of confidence."


The situation underscores the sharp reversal of sentiment over the
Vietnamese economy, which, until last year, was among the fastest
growing in Asia. In March 2007, the combined value of stocks on the Ho
Chi Minh City and Hanoi stock exchanges stood at about $29 billion – up
from less than $1 billion in 2005.


Economists say that a recent suggestion by the Vietnamese
Government that it does not have sufficient foreign reserves to fend
off an attack from speculators, who may bet on the dong suffering a
sudden and sharp drop, was ill-timed.


Ms Chan said: "The bitter lessons of the Thais and Indonesians in
1997 are clear: even $22 billion can be used up very quickly when the
currency is under heavy pressure from determined and well-financed
speculators.


"The only way to regain credibility is by employing serious tools
to attack the roots of the problem, which are an overheating economy
and excessive inflation."


She added: "To prevent a currency and balance of payments crisis,
it is necessary that the Government take a tough tightening stance.
This could dampen growth in the near term but the benefits outweigh the
downside, as it would take an extended period for an economy to recover
from a major crisis."