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Asian Stocks Fall Most in 3 Weeks; Toyota, Olympus Lead Decline




By Chen Shiyin and Patrick Rial





















May 9 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks declined the most in three
weeks, led by automakers and technology companies, after Toyota
Motor Corp. and Olympus Corp. forecast lower profits on rising
raw-material costs.


Toyota, the world's second-largest automaker, slumped after
saying higher gasoline prices and a U.S. economic slowdown will
erode profit. Olympus, the world's sixth-biggest maker of cameras,
tumbled the most in three months. China's stocks slumped on
speculation a report will show inflation accelerated, prompting
the government to boost measures to curb growth.


``The global economy is slowing and at the same time
automakers like Toyota aren't able to sufficiently pass on
continually rising materials costs,'' said Shuichi Hida, who
helps manage $850 million at Plaza Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.


The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1 percent to 149.11 as of
5:04 p.m. in Tokyo, its biggest decline since April 18. The
measure is poised for a five-day, 1.7 percent retreat, its worst
weekly performance in two months and snapping a two-week rally.


China's CSI 300 Index fell 1.2 percent. Japan's Nikkei 225
Stock Average sank 2.1 percent to 13,655.34. Bridgestone Corp.,
the world's biggest tiremaker by sales, retreated after saying
profit declined as it paid more for rubber and petroleum-based
synthetic materials. Japanese manufacturers are struggling with
higher materials costs and a stronger yen, which erodes the value
of sales in the U.S.


Takefuji Corp., Japan's No. 3 consumer-finance company by
market value, posted the biggest decline on MSCI's Asian index
after it forecast a 19 percent drop in profit this year.


Limiting losses, National Australia Bank Ltd. gained after
the country's largest bank by assets said profit rose. BHP
Billiton Ltd. led energy producers higher after oil futures
traded above $124 a barrel. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed
0.9 percent, Asia's biggest advance.


U.S. Futures


In the U.S., Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in
June fell 0.3 percent recently. After the close of trading
yesterday, American International Group Inc., the world's biggest
insurer by assets, posted a loss that was wider than analyst
estimates and said it needs to raise $12.5 billion in capital.


Toyota, the world's second-largest automaker after General
Motors Corp., dropped 3.3 percent to 5,300 yen, its biggest
decline since April 4. The company said fourth-quarter net income
decreased 28 percent to 316.8 billion yen ($3 billion) and
predicted a 27 percent slump in earnings this fiscal year. That
will be its first decline in annual profit in at least seven
years.


Investor Sentiment


``Considering the exchange rate, rising steel costs, and
spiking oil prices, we can't just write off Toyota's forecast to
the company being conservative,'' said Yoshihisa Okamoto, a fund
manager at Mizuho Asset Management Co. in Tokyo, which oversees
the equivalent of $26 billion. ``The effect on investor sentiment
is enormous.''


Hyundai Motor Co., South Korea's largest automaker, fell 1.2
percent to 88,000 won. Its affiliate Kia Motors Corp. dropped 4
percent to 13,150 won. Hyundai and Kia said they halted plans to
build pick-up trucks in the U.S. as high oil prices crimp demand
for less fuel-efficient vehicles.


Bridgestone dropped 6.2 percent to 1,799 yen, its biggest
loss since Aug. 17, after saying net income fell 18 percent in
the first quarter. Sumitomo Rubber Industries Ltd., Japan's No. 2
tiremaker, lost 5.5 percent to 836 yen after slashing its full-
year profit forecast 28 percent on rising costs, a slowdown in
the U.S. economy and foreign-exchange instability.


Olympus Forecast


Olympus lost 5.8 percent to 3,260 yen, the largest decline
since Feb. 5, after predicting a 26 percent drop in net income in
the year ending March 2009. The forecast missed analyst estimates.


Refiners declined on concern increased fuel prices will
erode profits. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the nation's
largest, sank 3.3 percent to HK$7.61, rounding off a four-day, 13
percent loss. SK Energy Co., South Korea's largest, slumped 3
percent to 112,500 won.


Crude oil for June delivery climbed today to a record high
of $124.73 a barrel in New York. That's double the level a year
ago. Futures were recently at $124.54.


BHP, Australia's No. 1 oil explorer, rose 3.5 percent to
A$46.50, its highest close since Nov. 1.


Noble Group Ltd., a Hong Kong-based supplier of raw
materials, surged 4.3 percent to a record S$2.65 in Singapore
after saying first-quarter net income more than tripled.


China Vanke Co., the nation's largest publicly traded
developer, lost 5 percent to 21.88 yuan in Shanghai. China
Merchants Bank Co., the nation's fifth-largest bank by market
value, fell 5.2 percent to 31.26 yuan.


China's statistics bureau will release April's consumer-
price index figure on May 12. The nation will maintain a tight
monetary policy to cool price increases and prevent economic
overheating, Vice Premier Wang Qishan said today.


In Sydney, shares of National Australia jumped 4 percent to
A$32.24 after the bank said first-half profit rose 26 percent on
growth in lending and deposits.


Takefuji retreated 14 percent to 2,155 yen. The company
expects a 19 percent drop in profit this year, on a 27 percent
plunge in revenue.

[thaihuu01]

Dollar Bulls Gain Control as Futures Signal Euro Close to Peak




By Liz Capo McCormick






May 12 (Bloomberg) -- For the first time since December
2005, futures traders are turning bullish on the dollar.


The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and
other large speculators on a gain in the greenback versus the
euro, known as net longs, was 21,315 on April 29, figures from
the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington show.
There were net-short positions in each of the previous 123
weeks. At the same time, traders have stepped up their purchases
of options that profit from the dollar's appreciation.


The measures are making long-suffering proponents of the
dollar optimistic that this time the currency's rally may hold,
especially if the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee
refrains from additional interest-rate cuts. The Dollar Index
traded on ICE Futures in New York, which tracks the currency
against six trading partners, is up 3.3 percent from an all-time
low of 70.698 set on March 17.


``There is kind of a sea change taking place at the
moment,'' said Mitul Kotecha, head of foreign-exchange research
in London at investment bank Calyon, whose forecasts on the
euro-dollar exchange rate in the first quarter were more
accurate than those of the two biggest currency traders. ``It's
probably the early sign of perhaps a more sustained
turnaround.''


The dollar has appreciated 3.4 percent to $1.5482 since
dropping to $1.6019 per euro on April 22, the lowest since the
European currency's debut in 1999. By the end of the year, the
dollar will strengthen to $1.50, according to the median
estimate of 40 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg.


Gaining Traction


The dollar's rebound gained traction last month after the
Open Market Committee said ``substantial'' rate cuts since
September would help foster growth. U.S. employers also
eliminated fewer jobs in April than forecast by economists.


Meanwhile, a slide in business confidence in Germany and
France, which account for about half the euro-region economy,
renewed speculation the European Central Bank will reduce rates
this year. An end to lower rates in the U.S. and the possibility
of cuts in Europe raises the appeal of dollar-denominated
assets.


``The recent shift to a neutral FOMC stance and from a very
hawkish European Central Bank stance, together with U.S. data
pointing to a stagnation rather than a deep contraction, have
already contributed to the dollar's rally,'' said Marc Chandler,
global head of currency strategy in New York at Brown Brothers
Harriman Inc. Chandler said he expects the dollar to reach $1.44
per euro by year-end.


Rate Futures


Interest-rate futures on the Chicago Board of Trade show an
82 percent chance the Fed will keep its target unchanged at 2
percent when policy makers next meet on June 25, with the
balance of the odds calling for a quarter-percentage point cut.


The ECB will lower its 4 percent main refinancing rate to
3.75 percent by the end of September and 3.50 percent by year-
end, according to the median estimate of 31 economists surveyed
by Bloomberg.


As declining home sales and mortgage losses curbed economic
growth, investor sentiment grew so negative on the dollar that
even longtime pessimists such as Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers
Holdings, say the U.S. currency is due to rebound.


``I expect a nice rally in the American dollar because so
many have been bearish on the American dollar, including me,''
he said on May 8 in Singapore. Rogers, who co-founded the
Quantum fund with George Soros in the 1970s and correctly
predicted the start of the commodities boom in 1999, cited the
benefit of surging prices for U.S. agricultural products.


Contrarian Indicator


Futures can be viewed as a contrarian indicator because
traders often rush to reduce positions when momentum in a
currency shifts. The last time net longs were this high, in
December 2005, the dollar was nearing the end of a one-year, 13
percent rally versus the euro. It weakened 11 percent in 2006
and depreciated by the same amount in 2007.


``It is more likely than not that reasons for speculators
returning to selling the dollar will be greater than reasons for
them to sell the euro,'' said Derek Halpenny, head of global-
currency research in London at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
Ltd., who expects the euro to reach a record high within three
months. ``I see risk that the ECB doesn't do anything this year
and expect the Fed will ease again in 2008.''


Between May 2005 and the end of that year, futures traders
were net long the dollar versus the euro 73 percent of the time.
The U.S. currency gained 7.9 percent in that period.


Call Options


Net-short positions versus all currencies fell to $10
billion in the week ended April 29, from $22 billion in the
prior period, according to CFTC data tracked by Morgan Stanley.
Speculators had net-long bets on the dollar versus the pound and
the euro. Hedge funds and other large speculators were net-short
the euro for a second week in the period ended May 6.


In another bullish signal for the dollar, demand for one-
month options that grant the right to sell the euro is greater
than for those allowing for purchases. The so-called risk-
reversal rate had a 0.44 percentage point premium for euro puts
relative to calls on May 9.


As recently as March, demannd for call options was greater
than put options. On Jan. 28, the premium for euro calls reached
0.45 percentage point, the highest since April 2007.


``We may very well have seen the bottom in the dollar,''
said Stephen Jen, the global head of currency research at Morgan
Stanley in London, who forecasts the dollar will rise to $1.40
per euro by year-end. ``The dollar has regained some traction
lately. Against the euro, the U.S. dollar is around 25 percent
undervalued.''



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[thaihuu01]

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[thaihuu01]

Vietnam Raises Its Benchmark Interest Rate to 12% (Update2)


By Nguyen Kieu Giang


May 17 (Bloomberg) -- Vietnam will raise its benchmark interest rate,
lifting the maximum return that commercial banks can offer depositors
to 18 percent a year, the Southeast Asian nation's central bank said.

The
State Bank of Vietnam will increase the base rate to 12 percent from
8.75 percent on May 19, according to a statement released in Hanoi
today. Under central bank regulations, banks cannot offer savers rates
exceeding 150 percent of the base rate.

Vietnam has sought to tame accelerating inflation
by tightening credit and cutting the supply of money. Consumer prices
that surged 21.4 percent in April, the most since at least 1992, and
rate restrictions have hurt banks' ability to attract deposits.

``Today's move should help to ensure that banks have the mechanism available to them to mobilize more deposits,'' said Dominic Scriven, a director at Dragon Capital, a Ho Chi Minh City-based fund manager. ``That will help financial stability.''

The
12 percent cap on deposit rates before the rate rise has meant that
real interest rates have been negative because of inflation, Scriven
said. So-called real interest rates are returns paid on savings in
excess of the inflation rate.

The
State Bank of Vietnam also said its discount rate will nearly double to
11 percent from 6 percent, while the refinance rate will be raised to
13 percent from 6 percent, according to the statement. The rates will
also take effect on May 19, it said.

`Weren't Suitable'

``The rates haven't been changed since February and were not suitable with the market situation,'' Nguyen Van Giau, the central bank governor, said in a news conference today in Hanoi.

The central bank
said on April 25 it didn't plan to increase its benchmark interest rate
because month-on-month inflation showed recent policy measures were
effective.

Vietnam's bank
lending rose 14.7 percent in the first four months, reaching almost
half the 30 percent limit set by the central bank to reduce credit
growth.

``Margins are
decreasing with banks borrowing short at high interest rates and
lending long, mostly at past lower rates,'' Vinacapital Investment
Management Ltd., the Ho Chi Minh City- based manager of three
U.K.-listed funds, said in a note this month posted on its Web site.

The
amount commercial banks must set aside as reserves was raised in
February to 11 percent for deposits of 12 months or less, from 10
percent. For dong and foreign currencies deposited for one year or
more, the figure rose to 5 percent from 4 percent.

`Rising Risks'

Standard
& Poor's Ratings Service this month cut its outlook on Vietnam's
credit rating to negative from stable, citing ``rising risks to
macroeconomic stability from an overheating economy.''

``Given
the unproven risk-management capability of domestic banks, an
unexpectedly severe slowdown in economic growth could see sharply
higher loan losses at many of these institutions,'' Standard &
Poor's said in a May 2 report.

Vietnam's Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Sinh Hung
said last month the government would reduce the 2008 economic growth
target to 7 percent from a previous forecast of as much as 9 percent.

Gross
domestic product growth slowed to 7.4 percent year- on-year in the
first quarter. The economy expanded 8.5 percent in 2007, the fastest
rate since 1996.



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