LAF: ruồi hút mật

[bean2000]

Với tình hình giá điều thế giới giảm và nhu cầu cũng không cao thì liệu ngành điều VN có lãi trong quý 4 này không hả bác Bean ?
Hiệp hội Điều có gửi kiến nghị lên Bộ NN&PTTN để xin ưu đãi vốn nhưng vẫn chưa thấy hồi âm nhỉ ?

Chắc là không lãi bác à. Các DN điều hiện nay tự thân vận động là chính, việc ưu đãi (nếu có) chắc là phải chờ hơi lâu

-----Original Message-----
From: Pankaj Sampat [mailto[email protected]]
Sent: Monday, October 24, 2011 1:31 AM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - OCT 22, 2011


OCT 22, 2011


There was very little activity in the Cashew market in Week 43. Some
processors in India & Vietnam sold W320 in the 3.75-3.90 FOB range for
Oct-Dec shipments. There was some buying interest for first quarter 2012
around 3.85-3.90 FOB – offers were about 20-25 cents higher and so, no
business was done. Nominal levels for other grades were 4.20-4.45 for W240,
3.70-3.90 for W450, 3.75-3.90 for SW320, 3.60-3.75 for SW360, 3.20-3.35
for Splits/Butts and 3.00-3.15 for Pieces. The wide range of prices is
making things extremely difficult.

Indian domestic market was very quiet. Wholesalers / Stockists are not
buying more as they are busy delivering to retailers – indications in many
areas are that retail offtake in the Diwali festival may not be as strong as
normal due to high prices & competition from other nuts. As the prices have
eased in the last few weeks from the peak of July/Aug, some people expect
that offtake may go back to normal levels during the ensuing marriage season
/ winter (Nov to Jan). This week, there were reports of some activity –
after a long quiet period – in Vietnam’s domestic market (China) due to the
lower prices. It is to be seen whether this continues in the coming weeks.

RCN market was expectedly quiet, mirroring the quietness in the kernel
market. Indonesia & Tanzania RCN were offered & traded around US$ 1650 C&F.
If kernel market continues to be quiet in Nov, sheller interest in new RCN
buying will be muted.

Main importing markets – USA & EU – have been picking up some quantities at
the lower levels mainly for nearbys (some buyers – not many - are paying few
cents more for quality & reliability). There does not seem to much interest
to take on large forward covers especially when the market is soft &
drifting and there is uncertainty about demand trend (due to the high prices
PLUS external factors). Stray business is being done for first quarter 2012
by some buyers – probably with a view to have some cover on the books than
nothing at all.

of kernel price movement for the last few months shows :
- After a long period of stability, prices started moving up gradually from
3.10 in Aug 2010 to 3.80 in Dec 2010. During this period, fair amount of
business was done for 2011 deliveries in the 3.25-3.50 range and some was
done in the 3.50-3.80 range.
- In early 2011 (upto April/May), prices moved up gradually from 3.80 to
4.00 FOB. Most of the business was for mid 2011 deliveries.
- During May to mid Aug prices moved up from 4.00 to 4.75. Most of the
business was for late 2011 deliveries and very limited business was done for
2012 delivcries.
- Although it is impossible to know share of 2011 business done in various
periods, it would be reasonable to assume that average price for 2011
deliveries is in the 3.75-4.00 range (or at least 3.50-4.00 range).
- From end Aug/early Sep to end Oct, prices have come down from 4.75 to
3.80-4.00 FOB (within or close to the average for 2011 deliveries).

If there is limited kernel demand in the coming weeks and if RCN prices
come down due to lack of sheller interest to buy, we will see kernel prices
drift to the lower end of the range by end of 2011 / beg of 2012. But if
there is reasonable activity – as many expect – prices will stabilise in the
current range and may even move up a few cents if the main markets come in
to buy decent volume for early 2012 shipments (if / when they see price
drift stop) – they will have to do this at some point because so far,
coverage for 2012 is much, much below normal.

Overall, we can expect an interesting last quarter which is not unusual for
the Cashew trade !!!

Would appreciate your comments on market situation & recent demand trends,
forecast / views on demand + market trend for next few months and any other
news or information


Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]