LAF: ruồi hút mật

[bean2000]

Gửi bởi Vinamilk
tụi nước ngoài cứ gom LAF đều đều các bác nhỉ

NN chỉ bán vào ngày 26/6, còn lại mua gom suốt từ 22/6 -22/7. Hôm nay mua mạnh nhất.

From: Pankaj Sampat [mailto[email protected]]
Sent: Sunday, July 24, 2011 1:59 PM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JULY 23, 2011


JULY 23, 2011

Week 29 & 30 saw reasonable activity in Cashews with several markets. Prices for Wholes were steady but brokens moved up sharply. Business was done for W240 around 4.90-4.95, W320 from 4.55 to 4.70, W450 from 4.45-4.55, SW around 4.50 FOB. Splits/Butts were traded as high as 4.15-4.20 and Pieces were traded upto 4.05-4.10 FOB. Most of the business was for Aug-Oct but a fair volume was traded for Oct-Dec and some business was done for Jan-Mar 2012 as well.

Indian domestic market which was quiet for two weeks saw some activity from middle of this week – prices for Splits & Pieces moved up more than 5% in a few days. There was some interest in Wholes as well.

There is no change in RCN market – until Indonesia starts offering new crop, almost all the business will be re-sales by processors (RCN traders do not seem to have any large unsold positions). Good quality parcels are being picked up at high prices whereas low quality parcels are not being looked even at a discount. Due to the strong domestic demand, shellers in the non-exporting regions are quite active in the spot RCN market.

During July, there has been reasonable activity in the kernel market but any given time, there has been wide range of prices – difference of upto 3% between the highest and lowest prices. Some shellers have been able to sell at high end of the range whereas some processors are not able to sell even near the lower end of the range, showing that some buyers are willing to take positions even at the higher levels whereas others are totally out of the market. This thin liquidity is confusing / distorting the market and is a cause for concern.

Although total imports of RCN into India in 2011 will be lower, the arrivals in Jul-Sep will be higher than the very low imports in Apr-Jun. But reduced labour availability and the Onam holdays in Kerala in Sep will mean kernel availability from India will continue to be tight for next few months. If retail offtake in domestic market in Aug/Sep is good, there will be a fresh round of buying by the wholesalers which will put further upward pressure on the market during a period of reduced availability.

If processing in Vietnam picks up pace, kernel availability from there will be better in the third quarter as they have been quite active in West African RCN market but that may not make up for the shortfall of over 10000mt of kernels in the first half. Since inventories in importing countries are low, the need for regular buying will probably absorb whatever is offered without any impact on prices.

Aug/Sep will be crucial period to determine market trend for next 9 months (till the 2012 crops start). If USA / Europe buying in these months is very much lower, we might see prices settling at the lower end of the current range with some chance of a small decline towards end of the year if Southern Crops are good. A large price decline is possible only if lower buying by importing countries in second half 2011 is followed by good Northern crops in 2012. If Indian retail offtake in Aug/Sep is good and if the importing countries activity is even little less than what we have seen in the first half, there is a possibility of prices moving up a bit. If that happens, prices for Southern Crop RCN will not come down, reducing the possibility of kernel price decline till 2012 crops start. Any adverse news in Aug/Sep from Brazil (the bigger Southern crop) will add fuel to the fire.

Apart from these fundamental factors – demand & supply, we have to see what will happen in the financial markets in the coming weeks and what impact it will have on manufacturer & retailer strategies on inventories & sales / promotions and the consumer sentiment towards consumption of snacks & nuts.

PLEASE LET US KNOW YOUR COMMENTS ON MARKET SITUATION, VIEWS + FORECAST OF DEMAND & PRICE TRENDS AND ANY OTHER NEWS OR INFORMATION



Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]