Tình hình hiện nay? Đến 31/05/11

[CKvsRE]

Cụ bảo thế thì có người lại bảo cụ bị kẹp đó. Khà............khà..........

Trả lới cỡ nào cũng bảo là bị kẹp hệ. Khà ..... Khà ....

[VNINDEX500]

Ôi, vui quá, Việt Nam có chiến hạm. Tổng tấn công.

http://www.baomoi.com/Home/TheGioi/b...am/5877846.epi

[VNINDEX500]

Trả lới cỡ nào cũng bảo là bị kẹp hệ. Khà ..... Khà ....

Đang cầm tiền cũng được gọi là bị kẹp tiền nữa đấy. Khà............khà...........

[CKvsRE]

Đang cầm tiền cũng được gọi là bị kẹp tiền nữa đấy. Khà............khà...........

Vậy hả. Khà ... Khà ...

[kiemkhach]

Vietnam’s poor government

Consider these figures, in US dollar terms, gathered from the BBC. The foreign debt of the government of Vietnam at the beginning of March 2011 was 29 billion, just over 42% of the annual gross domestic product. The country operates a twin deficit in trade and in government budget. Inferring from the figures below, however, it appears the government of Vietnam could go bankrupt.

The government’s reserves, its savings, are less than 50% of debt. If all 29 billion of debt has to be repaid tomorrow, the government of Vietnam will not have enough money to pay all. If there were a call on loans by all creditors at the same time, the government’s finances would not be liquid. This may not happen, but the possibility exists, say, in a political crisis like Egypt 2011 or a severe national disaster like the Japan earthquake this month, or a sudden panic among foreign capital investors and lenders.

The situation is not likely to get better in the short term. The budget deficit is continuing and the government is budgeting for 5% deficit again for this financial year. The trade deficit also shows no signs of abating quickly, with the February figure just below 1 billion. The government plans to restrict the 2011 trade deficit to 18% of export revenues or 14.2 billion. But this would still be a slight increase over 2010.

Therefore, given the twin deficits are continuing, continued borrowing may be necessary, after taking into consideration disbursed FDI and remittances from overseas Vietnamese. However, remittances go straight into people’s pockets rather than the government’s purse. The Vietnamese people have several billions of dollars of wealth held in various instruments of savings, chiefly US dollars and gold. The main reason for this is of course a lack of confidence in the Vietnamese dong, and in the government’s fight against inflation.

In 2011, 4 billion is needed to pay interests on the foreign debt of the government. This is about 12% of the government budget. More and more, lenders to the Vietnamese government would have to take future earnings and the ability of the government to collect taxes as important considerations for future loans. Sovereign borrowers tend to have an edge over private sector borrowings in this regard, and one wonders whether this is a moral hazard in the international financial system?

If the foreign reserves of the Vietnamese government falls below the 4 billion needed annually to pay interests, then what could happen? Government foreign reserves are on a downward trend since the financial crisis started in Vietnam in 2008, before the global financial crisis started.

What would be the regional implications if Vietnam becomes Southeast Asia’s Iceland, or Greece?

There is now a drive to cut the budget deficit by cutting down on government spending. The reduction as planned is however a mere 0.5% reduction over 2010. More must be done and government and party leaders must set personal examples as well as let their offices take the lead. Vietnamese people were very impressed when a foreign head of government traveled via a budget airline out from Hanoi several years ago. In contrast, while on state visits, Vietnamese leaders often bring with them large delegations in a specially chartered plane of the national airlines. Travelling with less style would help. Other examples of wastage abounds.

What the government needs is to institutionalize macro controls and prevent over-spending. Overall there should be a cap on the deficit that no government is allowed to change or exceed without 80% approval by the National Assembly, and the State President should also be allowed to scrutinize the government’s budget more carefully and be given the authority to request the government to make compulsory changes mandated by law. The State President should also be allowed to veto budget deficits if he still felt that the 80% approval in the National Assembly was not in the interests of the nation. Compulsory savings from the annual government budget should become a regular practice.

Sector-specific controls could also be instituted. For instance, while the areas of defence, health care, and education need not be subjected to strong caps, the budgets of the other ministries and of the state-owned enterprises should be tightly controlled and be put on a road map to steadily decrease their budgets over the next 5 years, until the financial situation has improved tremendously. If the state-owned businesses, unless they are of strategic importance for the security of the country, cannot survive without government budget infusions, then they should fold up.

Paradoxically, this is also the time donor countries should consider reducing their help, albeit gradually, so that the government would be forced to make tough choices about their budget and to make sure Vietnam live within its means. With the present state of finances, Vietnam’s growth story is unsustainable and could unravel.

David Koh is Senior Fellow, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.

http://web1.iseas.edu.sg/?p=2786

[Tomty]

he he , hun nay thì lại trắng bên bén
thía mà chúng ló bẩu không zui
nhưng chỉ là ngắn ngắn hạn
ai đồNG Ý ?

[VNINDEX500]

he he , hun nay thì lại trắng bên bén
thía mà chúng ló bẩu không zui
nhưng chỉ là ngắn ngắn hạn
ai đồNG Ý ?

"ngắn ngắn hạn" T + 1 là ok rồi.

[quang gia]

tình hình đang khủng khiếp hơn mọi người nghĩ ! hạn chế nhảy nhót ! bảo toàn được vốn đã là thành công !!!

Này !thằng nhật sao nó nhảy dựng lên thế nhể cụ!cụ chưa chơi .........chết nó òi!cứ thế lấy gì mà ăn

[quang gia]

Khà..............khà............. nhậu mà éo rủ em, xấu xí, ăn thì ăn một mình, uống cũng uống một mình. Mai mốt có trúng độc thì trúng một mình. E éo đi đưa cơm...............

ói giòi!có mấy chiến hữu Sa đéc lên mấy chú uống khoẻ quá!e thăng thiên nó mất làm chục vại bauhaus mà phê quá!.......tý tè ra quần!khà khà

[ngocmai227]

"ngắn ngắn hạn" T + 1 là ok rồi.

Ngắn quá như thế thì để mua hay để chạy

[quang gia]

he he , hun nay thì lại trắng bên bén
thía mà chúng ló bẩu không zui
nhưng chỉ là ngắn ngắn hạn
ai đồNG Ý ?

khà khà !e ít khi đaón đáy nhưng hình như.............đáy roài đấy!
khà khà

[hailua2009]

Ngắn quá như thế thì để mua hay để chạy

Sao Nhật nùn động đất mà lên đến 6% các bác

[VNINDEX500]

Ngắn quá như thế thì để mua hay để chạy

Để rang lạc........ khà .............khà.........

[VNINDEX500]

ói giòi!có mấy chiến hữu Sa đéc lên mấy chú uống khoẻ quá!e thăng thiên nó mất làm chục vại bauhaus mà phê quá!.......tý tè ra quần!khà khà

Hôm nào gặp mấy chú An Giang lên còn chết nữa.............

[VNINDEX500]

Sao Nhật nùn động đất mà lên đến 6% các bác

Khà......khà.............. rủi ro, nguy cơ, sợ hãi của người này lại là cơ hội cho người khác.

[COCA]

10/3 - 50 cổ * 21.4 ( đây là vốn cổ - t+0 )
14/3 - 20 c * 23.6 ( 9 h 45 )
15/3 - 20 c * 23.6 ( mua phiên 1 )
15/3 - 10 c * 23.7 ( 9h 27’ )
16/3 - 15 c ( mua phiên 1) sử dụng đòn gánh ( t + 8 ) phải thoát hàng dù :”+,-“

[VNINDEX500]

Kiểu này thì NhatKimAnh bị lock nick là chắc rồi. Thành thật chia buồn.

[quang gia]

Hôm nào gặp mấy chú An Giang lên còn chết nữa.............

khà khà!đúng thật ...............chết thẳng cẳng!
mà này Hôm khéo chia tay Thím KiM Anh thật òi!khà khà

[COCA]

Đánh thuê lời chia lỗ tôi chịu : SSI
10/3 - 50 cổ * 21.4 ( đây là vốn cổ - t+0 )
14/3 - 20 c * 23.6 ( 9 h 45 )
15/3 - 20 c * 23.6 ( mua phiên 1 )
15/3 - 10 c * 23.7 ( 9h 27’ )
16/3 - 15 c * 23.5 ( mua phiên 1) sử dụng đòn gánh ( t + 8 ) phải thoát hàng dù :”+,-“
16/3 - 15c * 23.7 ( 9h47’ ) sử dụng đòn gánh

[ANHRECOC]

8.59 16.03.2011

Mệ nhà nó, éo kịp bắt đáy BVH, MSN òi...