Biến động thị trường tài chính toàn cầu

[thanhnguyen23]

Thị trường chứng khoán toàn cầu đang trải qua đợt bán tháo mạnh, phản ánh lo ngại ngày càng tăng về khả năng Cục Dự trữ Liên bang Mỹ (Fed) đang chậm chân trong việc hỗ trợ nền kinh tế đang có dấu hiệu suy yếu. Chỉ số Topix của Nhật Bản giảm hơn 7%, trong khi thị trường chứng khoán Hàn Quốc và Úc cũng sụt giảm đáng kể. Hợp đồng tương lai chỉ số S&P 500 của Mỹ giảm hơn 1,5%, cho thấy áp lực bán tháo lan rộng trên toàn cầu.


Trên thị trường trái phiếu, lợi suất trái phiếu kho bạc Mỹ giảm xuống mức thấp nhất trong hơn một năm, trong khi lợi suất trái phiếu 10 năm của Nhật Bản giảm 17 điểm cơ bản xuống 0,785%. Động thái này phản ánh sự dịch chuyển của dòng tiền từ tài sản rủi ro sang các kênh đầu tư an toàn hơn.


Nguyên nhân chính của đợt bán tháo này là số liệu việc làm Mỹ yếu hơn dự kiến, với tỷ lệ thất nghiệp tăng cao hơn dự báo cuối năm của Fed. Điều này làm dấy lên lo ngại về khả năng Fed không thể đạt được "hạ cánh mềm" cho nền kinh tế Mỹ, dẫn đến khả năng suy thoái kinh tế trong tương lai gần.


Trước tình hình này, nhà đầu tư đang đặt cược Fed sẽ cắt giảm lãi suất hơn 1% trong năm 2024. UBS đã điều chỉnh dự báo, kỳ vọng Fed sẽ cắt giảm lãi suất 50 điểm cơ bản vào tháng 9 và 25 điểm cơ bản mỗi đợt vào tháng 11 và 12.
Tuy nhiên, cần lưu ý rằng lịch sử cho thấy các nhà giao dịch trái phiếu đã nhiều lần đánh giá sai hướng đi của lãi suất kể từ khi kết thúc đại dịch. Vì vậy, nhà đầu tư cần thận trọng và theo dõi sát sao các số liệu kinh tế và động thái chính sách của Fed trong thời gian tới để có chiến lược đầu tư phù hợp.
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</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:8.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:107%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} </style> <![endif]-->P/s: Việc đa dạng hóa danh mục và phân bổ vốn hợp lí vào các kênh đầu tư khác nhau (chứng khoán, hàng hóa, crypto, etc) sẽ giúp giảm thiểu rủi ro và tối đa hóa lợi nhuận. Hiện nay, Sở Giao dịch Hàng hóa Việt Nam (MXV) đã được cấp phép giao dịch liên thông quốc tế với 4 nhóm sản phẩm bao gồm nguyên liệu công nghiệp (café, cao su), nông sản (lúa, ngô, đậu tương), kim loại (bạc, bạch kim, nhôm, sắt, thép), năng lượng (dầu thô, khí đốt)

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