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[tradingpro8x]

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Creating an Effective System: Acceleration Bands and Williams' Percent R


Contributed by Price Headley


For option traders, correctly forecasting short-term price action is imperative to long-term success and, in my view, technical is the best way to achieve this. Many would say the “Holy Grail” of technical is to find true “leading” indicators … those that point to directional movements and trends as they are occurring or before they occur, not lagging indicators that show what has already occurred. I’ve tested and designed hundreds of technical indicators over the years, and I want to share with you one of my trading systems that uses two of my favorite and time-tested indictors. The two indicators? One is Acceleration Bands, which I created. The other is Williams’ Percent R, which I have modified and created specific rules to utilize that are different than is seen in normal trading systems.
A major problem that many traders have is too many signals. In other words, their criteria needs to be tightened and refined. As many of you already know, I look for the Big Trends that rarely occur, this helps me leverage my capital while reducing the number of total trades. Now, don’t be fooled, there is no fool-proof system out there … so risk control is an important part of any technical system. In life, it's good to be an optimist, but excessive optimism in system development can easily lead to ignoring the risks and the weaknesses in your trading system. All systems have weaknesses. Make sure your systems have a risk control element to it.
Today I want to share with you a system that uses only two indicators, Acceleration Bands and Williams’ Percent R – remember keep your system simple. First, it’s important to describe each system independently to see the strength and weaknesses of each.
Acceleration Bands: Available in the MetaStock Big Trends ToolKit
Description: Adaptive bands that contain 95% of price action usually used in 20 or 80 bar periods. Trading signals occur when price action is confirmed outside the bands. This indicator targets the top 5% of moves, keeping traders focused on the best trends.
The 20 Bar Acceleration Band Expert Advisor (SPX chart below) shows buy and sell signals based on my system. Notice that in the 14 months shown, the S&P500 only exposed a signal 4 times, each was profitable. This depicts the 5% theory well – Acceleration Bands highlight only the extreme moves for option traders. The issue many traders face is really two-fold; many traders want more signals and the entry point can use some refinement. Like the Yin & Yang relationship, I’ve developed a system that combines Acceleration Bands with Williams’ Percent R to remove any weaknesses and refine trading signals. Let’s take a look at how it works.


Williams’ Percent R – Traditional indicator available in MetaStock. The Big Trends Willams’ %R is available in the Big Trends Toolkit with two separate systems based on breakout and retest (lower risk entries) methods. We have smoothed out and modified Williams’ Percent R to make it a better and more usable trading vehicle.
Descriptions: Larry Williams created the Percent Range oscillator to highlight overbought versus oversold levels in securities. Traditionally overbought connotates a long exit or sell short entry as oversold would insinuate the opposite, however, we in general consider overbought to be bullish and oversold to be bearish. The Big Trends Percent R system targets the top 20th percentile and bottom 20th percentile.
In the chart below we have the Expert Advisor for Big Trends ToolKit (BTTK) Percent R Retest System applied to the S&P500. My first impression is that there may be too many signals with 11 trades in 14 months (compared to 4 with the Acceleration Bands). The Percent R Retest System targets lower risk entry points by signaling buy or sell-short signals after a corresponding breakout confirmation occurs. These pullbacks, or retests, are patterns that help identify fast moving trades that are immediately profitable. If they do not move in the expected direction immediately an exit signal is triggered for effective risk control.


Notice that we also have 20 Bar Acceleration Bands applied to the price action -- my favorite system employs both Percent R and Acceleration Bands; reducing the number of trades while only trading the best pullbacks. I focus on Percent R retests within Acceleration Band signals. Let’s take a look at an example of this signal below.

Notice above that we also have 20 Bar Acceleration Bands applied to the chart (but not a part of the trading signals) -- my system employs both Percent R and Acceleration Bands; reducing the number of trades while only trading the best pullbacks. I focus on Percent R retests within Acceleration Band signals. Let’s take a look at an example of this signal below.
When developing a system I look for winners that are at least twice the size of losses and a minimum 50% winning average, however, I’ve found that 60% winning average is optimum and realistic. That’s why using Acceleration Bands and Willams’ Percent R has become one of my favorite two indicator systems. Acceleration Bands highlight extremely strong moves, while Percent R Retest Method highlights low risk entry points within those Accelerations. In addition, I found that this system works particularly well on individual stocks, which typically provide more Acceleration signals than market averages like the S&P500.


For ease of learning I want to show you a quick example of a signal using both indicators within the same time frame as the charts above on the S&P500. In the chart below we have the Acceleration Band Expert Advisor (20 Bar) exposing a sell-short signal based on momentum. Notice that in the days after extreme selling signals an Acceleration short signal, we see a bounce, or retest, in price action. This typically occurs from value seekers, however, we know that once the trend has Accelerated thus far it’s probable to continue.
The blue arrow shows us where Percent R initially confirms bearish activity (prior to Acceleration signal) , and we know that any Percent R spike above 20% is now a qualified retest. Furthermore, if the retest occurs after the Acceleration Band signal it’s a lower risk entry within a highly probable signal. Adding the Percent Retest filter to your Acceleration bands will help you be patient for those lower risk entries after momentum has confirmed; while Acceleration signals help you identify weaker trends where retest become reversal.







As I’ve mentioned, in general keep a trading system simple – I have found that the unique combination of Acceleration Band breakouts and Williams Percent R re-tests (utilizing Big Trend Percent R methods) is a very effective trading tool & system. I encourage you to start testing this on your favorite stocks as it has helped me increase my winning percentage, while reducing those whipsaws that many traders experience from Acceleration Bands alone.


Trade Well,
Price Headley
BigTrends.com
1-800-244-8736



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Support Tip

How do I color my volume for up / down colors?


Contributed by Equis Support


Volume is one of the most powerful technical tools traders use in predicting the way a security is about to move. The difference between a smaller return and a bigger return is sometimes only a matter of seconds. Coloring volume bars to identify up volume and down volume can be used as a tool to give traders the edge they need.


To do this we must create a custom indicator in MetaStock.


1. Open MetaStock.
2. From the Tools menu on the main toolbar, select Indicator Builder.
3. Click New on the right hand side to open the Indicator Editor to create the new indicator.
4. Type in the desired name of the indicator in the name section.
5. Check the option to “Display in quicklist”.
6. Click in the larger “Formula” window and type or copy and paste this formula:
When comparing volume data to yesterday’s volume data:
If(V>=ref(V,-1),V,0);
If(VOr when comparing volume data to yesterday’s close price:
If(C>=ref(C,-1),V,0);
If(C7. Click ok to close the Indicator Editor and create the indicator, then close the Indicator Builder dialog.
8. Open any chart.
9. Using the indicator quick list, plot your new volume indicator; this will plot two different lines.
10. Scroll to the end of the chart and right click onto the line going up and select properties. Next select the Color/Style tab and select green for the color and set the style to histogram. Then select OK.
11. Scroll to the end of the chart and right click onto the line going down and select properties. Next select the Color/Style tab and select red for the color and set the style to histogram. Then select OK.


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MetaStock Features

Big Trends Toolkit Review


Contributed by David Derricott


The Big Trends Toolkit has been an immensely popular add-on. The reason is simple; people have found that the system works. Big Trends Toolkit features Explorations, System Tests, and Expert Advisors. The systems included in the add-on are Price Headley’s time tested strategies and can be used in any market. When market changes happen, as they have in the last year, it is important to have strategies that have proven their merit over time, and this is why the toolkit has been so popular. The Toolkit can be used to identify low-risk entry and exit points, spot accelerations, and more. I would encourage users to use the System Tests included with the Big Trends Toolkit to identify the best system to match the stocks you are trading. Customers really appreciate the level of detail in which the commentaries define how to use the system in trading. Each commentary provides detailed explanations of the systems and detailed instructions on how to trade each entry with your risk tolerance in mind. You have the opportunity to try this add-on on a 30 day money back guarantee.

[tigeran]

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Non-Farm Disappoints, But Gold Still Ends The Week On A Low. So What’s Next For Gold?

Contributed by Nik Kalsi and Phil Carr

Gold fell 1.6% in less than two hours on Thursday, as monetary policy easing in Europe and China was shortly followed by a better-than-expected US jobs report on Friday. US June non-farm payrolls rose by 80,000 while the jobless rate unchanged at 8.2 per cent, official figures showed.

US employers hired at a dismal pace in June, raising pressure on the Federal Reserve to do more to boost the economy and further imperilling President Barack Obama's chances of re-election in November.

By Friday lunchtime in London, Gold in Dollars was down around $5 per ounce on the week, while the Gold Price in Euros was still showing a 1.9% weekly gain following the weakening of the Euro. Meanwhile Silver fell to $27.10 per ounce – a few cents below where it started the week.

The Gold & Silver Clubs technical ******** on MetaStock’s QuoteCenter shows Gold has been in a three month consolidation range of $1525 to $1640. Despite its flat performance in recent months, we believe it’s likely to rebound before the end of the year and here are three good reasons why...

Quantitative Easing

Last Thursday The Bank of England (BoE) confirmed it was to restart its asset purchase programme with a further £50 billion of quantitative easing (QE). To put that into perspective, that will take the total size of the UK programme to £375 billion. We believe the Federal Reserve will be next to boost the US economy and of course that will result in renewed buying interest in the shiny metal.

Central banks still buying gold

Central banks, the largest holders of gold, may expand reserves for the third year running, according to the World Gold Council.

As gold prices head for a 12th consecutive annual gain, the council forecasts that central banks may buy more this year than the purchases of 456 tons in 2011 as countries diversify their reserves. We believe this makes absolute sense. The last thing that central banks want to hold is dollars. The most obvious thing for them to diversify into is dollar-denominated real assets and the easiest of these is gold.

Indian gold demand: A repeat of 2009?

Another reason why gold is in a consolidation period is due to news that the Indian economy, the biggest global consumer and importer of the commodity, is suffering, with the country registering its slowest quarterly growth of 5.3% in nine years in the first quarter this year.

In early 2009, when the Indian economy faltered and the rupee crumbled, demand all but disappeared. In the first quarter of that year, demand was just 24.2 tonnes, down 77% year-on-year, according to GFMS data. For the full year Indian gold consumption fell 19%.

Since March, gold sales to India have dropped between 50% and 60% year-on-year, with analysts forecasting Indian demand to fall between 20% and 30% over the full year.

However, traders should be aware that a downturn in Indian consumption is a purely cyclical phenomenon. In 2010, for example, when the Indian economy made a comeback, gold consumption soared 74% to a record high of 1,006 tonnes, according to GFMS estimates. And a similar rebound, later this year or in 2013, could be back on the cards.

Whilst we are still bullish on gold in the long-term, what’s our short-term outlook?

In the short-term The Gold & Silver Club is focused on potential sell short opportunities with both Gold and Silver. If we break the important support levels – $26 on Silver and $1525 on Gold, the momentum is likely to continue downward in the short-term.

If Silver breaks $26.00, we expect a big sell off with the price rapidly dropping to $25.00, $24.00, $23.00 or lower fast. In which case traders should be prepared with two things: ***, the right trading strategy to profit from the downside momentum and two: a precise market data tool such as MetaStock’s QuoteCenter to give you the right information at the right time to make the right trading decision.

On the flipside, if the market continues to bounce and rally off the $26.00 support level this potentially could be a very profitable trade to the upside. This key level has not been breached in the last 12 months so is the pivotal level to watch.

Looking at gold – if we continue to bounce off and rally from the $1525 to $1535 support level then expect a great trade toward the upside. Again this key level has not been breached in the last 12 months so is the pivotal level to watch. On the reverse side, if gold breaks through $1525 prepare yourself for a major sell off with the potential of gold price hitting lows of $1500, $1485, $1450 or lower fast.

On both occasions be aware – The more times we test a support level, the likely it is to break. To sum things up, the outlook for gold and silver remains bullish for the medium and long term but is rather bearish for the short term. If you would like to receive free weekly Gold & Silver trading updates then sign up to The Gold & Silver Clubs newsletter at www.thegoldandsilverclub.com.



About Nik Kalsi and Phil Carr

Nik Kalsi and Phil Carr are recognised as leading authorities on gold and silver trading. They are the founders of thegoldandsilverclub.com and professional commodity traders.

Nik Kalsi

Nik has extensive knowledge of the financial markets and investment strategy. Prior to founding The Gold & Silver Club, he spent 5 years coaching professional fund managers and traders internationally for some of the world’s top tier hedge funds and investment banks. Through his journey across the world’s leading trade floors, Nik formed first hand relationships with successful traders – discovering the strategies, mindset and tools giving professional traders the definitive edge in any economy. Nik has written many articles on monetary economics. He is also a regular columnist for a number of financial publications and appears frequently on television.

Phil Carr

Phil is the co-founder and director of The Gold & Silver Club. He specialises in teaching people how to make money from trading *** of the biggest financial markets in the world: Gold, Silver & Oil and has trained hundreds of individuals to become independent traders and successfully manage their own investment portfolio.

He has personally developed The Gold & Silver Club’s trademark investment strategies that have a proven track record of generating returns for traders.

Phil speaks at numerous trading seminars and workshops across the world sharing his expert knowledge with investors who have a passion and interest in trading Gold, Silver & Oil.


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Support Tip

How do I create an expert adviser for an optimized system test?

Contributed by MetaStock Support

Some of the System Tests look for optimized values based off of the data set and security you are testing. Optimization values can change with each new data point coming into the chart, so the optimization values can constantly change. Since optimization values are ever changing, it would be impossible to create an Exploration\Expert including all the different optimization values. This is why there are not matching Explorations and Experts for each System Test.

http://forum.metastock.com/Discussio...tor#post152766