Tổng quan vnindex và dự đoán

[MSWing]

NỘI DUNG:

I. Phân tích VNIndex theo sóng Elliott.
1. Lý thuyết sóng Elliott.
2. VNIndex dưới góc nhìn sóng Elliott.
3. Chu kì từ tháng 10/2003 đến tháng 2/2009.
4. Chu kì từ tháng 2/2009 tới nay.

II. Dự đoán VNIndex.
1. Giai đoạn tăng trưởng của chu kì thứ hai – sóng 3 của siêu chu kì
2. Điểm kết thúc sóng 2 của chu kì hiện thời

III. Quản lý tiền và chiến thuật giao dịch.
1. Khái niệm quản lý tiền
2. Sự quan trọng của quản lý tiền
3. Chiến thuật giao dịch theo các kịch bản

Nguyễn Đình Huy Analyst.

****** tuyên bố miễn trách: Người đọc chỉ nên xem các bài phân tích như nguồn thông tin tham khảo

Chi tiết:
http://******.net/news/******-phan-t...-DU-DOAN-1-82/
http://******.net/news/******-phan-t...-DU-DOAN-2-83/

[MSWing]

VNINDEX REVIEW AND FORECAST

CONTENTS:

I. Analysing VNIndex based on the Elliott Wave Principle
1. The Elliott Wave Principle
2. VNIndex investigation by the use of Elliot Waves
3. A Cycle from 10/2003 to 2/2009
4. A Cycle from 2/2009 up to date
II. VNIndex Forecasting
1. Growth period of the second cycle – Wave 3 of supercycle
2. The end point of wave 2 of the current cycle
III. Money management and trading tactics
1. The definition of money management
2. The significance of money management
3. Trading tactics based on different scenarios



I. Analysing VNIndex based on the Elliott Wave Principle
1. The Elliott Wave Principle
Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1948), a professional accountant, developed the concept in the 1930s. According to Elliott, the variations of price generate waves (figure 1). The basic pattern is composed of 5 primary waves and 3 corrective waves. Among the 5 primary ones, waves 1, 3, and 5 are motive ones, waves 2 and 4 are corrective ones. Letters A, B, and C are used for 3 corrective ones
Each motive wave itself subdivides in five waves and obeys rules of Elliott’s model. A completed motive pattern includes 89 waves, followed by a completed corrective pattern of 55 waves. The Elliott Wave Principle was mainly built on classical approaches, such as Dow Theory and traditional chart patterns. Most of those price patterns can be explained as part of Elliott Wave structure.

[IMG]http://******.net/uploads/news/2010_12/1.jpg[/IMG]

Figure 1

2. VNIndex investigation by the use of Elliot Waves
The development of VNIndex is split into different patterns according to time and basic rules of Elliott Wave.

[IMG]http://******.net/uploads/news/2010_12/tn_2.jpg[/IMG]

Figure 2

A cycle of Elliott Wave starting in 10/2003 was divided into:
- A supercycle which is multi-decade, illustrated by blue lines, denoted by (I),(II)
- Cycles, which last one year to several years, were illustrated by green lines, denoted by numbers I, II, III, IV, V and letters A, B, C.
A completed cycle which consists of 8 waves is slit in two distinct phases, the motive phase (also called “five”), and the corrective phase (also called “three”). Two successive impulse wave and corrective wave of a large cycle is a cycle of smaller degree. From 10/2003 to 2/2009, VNIndex underwent waves 1 and 2 of supercycle, equivalent to a cycle. At present, it is going through wave 3 of supercycle and corrective wave 2 of the second cycle.
The stock market started operation in 8/2000. However, 10/2003 is chosen as starting point because before this time, market capitalization was very small, and monthly volume just stayed around hundreds of thousands to one million of shares. In addition, such factors as Elliott Wave division rules and time also contribute to this practice.

3. A cycle from 10/2003 to 2/2009
It consists of 2 periods: growth period from 10/2003 to 10/2007, corrective period from 10/2007 to 2/2009, lasting 65 months (nearly 5.5 years). It includes:
Wave I starting in October 2003 when the market was still bearish. The market then became heated, climbed up, went sideways for an extended period, and finally witnessed a surge in price and volume in 9/2005.
The news was not so good; investors did not believe in the market’s recovery yet. Hence, wave 2 corrects wave 1, but can not extend beyond the starting point of wave 1. Commonly, the lowest point of wave 2 lies within 38.2%-61.8% of Fibo Retracement of wave 1. On the chart, wave II stopped right at 50% of Fibo Retracement.

[IMG]http://******.net/uploads/news/2010_12/tn_3.jpg[/IMG]

Figure 3

Wave 3 is often the largest and most powerful, and normally extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1. When Vietnam officially joined WTO in 11/2006, fundamental analysts started to raise earnings estimates, “the crowd” tried to step in the new bullish trend. This made the market jump on heavy volume, peaking at 1179 points on 12/3/2007

[IMG]http://******.net/uploads/news/2010_12/tn_4.jpg[/IMG]

Figure 4

Wave 4 is corrective and often the most complicated. It typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave 3. On the chart, wave IV was subdivided into III waves of lesser degree labeled [A], [B], and [C]. The end point of [C] is at Fibo Retracement 38.2% of wave III.
Wave IV was the result of profit taking pressure by investors after a tremendous rise of wave III. At that time, buying power was still strong; therefore, the price reversed quickly after retracing one third of wave III. But the selling power became stronger, pulling the prices down again. Wave IV corrected to form wave V.
Wave V was the final leg of the bullish trend. The news was universally positive and everyone was bullish. However, wave V could not surpass wave III, signaling a dramatic reversal ahead.

[IMG]http://******.net/uploads/news/2010_12/tn_5.jpg[/IMG]

Figure 5

The growth period ended on 10/10/2007, wave V peaked at nearly 1111 points. Generally, this period has a typical Elliott Wave pattern of V impulse waves. Wave I started in a bearish market, meandered sideways, then surged and got corrected by wave II. Wave III had the greatest momentum. Vietnam’s remarkable economic progress, together with the country’s bright prospects after WTO accession raised investors’ confidence. However, they became overconfident and pour too much money into the market, forming bubbles. Wave IV occurred with strong momentum, but the selling power also alerted “hot heads”. The last one is wave V, which is truncated and commonly appears right behind too extended and powerful wave III. Most of “foxes” already ran off the market in wave IV, and this is the last chance for the rest of them. The majority of inexperienced and over-excited investors took part in this stage. This small number of new participators could not push the market up further, and the market plunged as a result.
The declining period (10/2007 - 2/2009) obeyed Zigzags structure of a typical Elliott Wave pattern . This period consisted of 3 large corrective waves labeled A, B, and C which were subdivided into 5-3-5 waves respectively. (as above Figure )
Wave A fell more sharply than usual correction of Elliott Wave. The end point of wave A was nearly 78.6% of Fibo Retracement by joining the starting point of wave I and the peak of wave III.
Wave B retraced between one-third and two-thirds of wave A. Its peak is shorter than that of wave III, which takes shape in Top Head and Shouders pattern. Here is a good opportunity to flee the market. Since the market was so weak at that time, the pull-back resembled “Dead Cat Bounce” after long sharp fall. Wave B could not reach to one-third of length of wave A.
Wave C is the last one of the declining period. It is typically as large as wave A, and extends beyond the end point of wave A. At that moment, there exists a confidence crisis because almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Short increase of wave B warned of a plunge of wave C. The VNIndex at the end point of wave C is nearly the same as VNIndex during the accumulating period of wave I in 2004-2005.

[IMG]http://******.net/uploads/news/2010_12/tn_6.jpg[/IMG]

Figure 6

This period is an unavoidable result of over-speculation in the main growth period (wave III). Once hot money was withdrawn (wave IV), the market did not have enough momentum to make a big gain (wave V). In addition, unfavorable domestic factors as well as international fluctuations also contributed this crash.

4. A Cycle from 2/2009 up to date
The cycle lies in the growth period of wave 3 and wave 4 of supercycle. It consists of 5 waves denoted by numbers I, II, III, IV and V.
- Wave I (24/2-23/10/2009) is subdivided into 5 waves. Wave 1 increased from 234.66 to 347.8 on 15/4. Wave 2 retraced 38.2% of length of wave 1 on 24/4. Wave 3 extended and reached the peak at 525.22 on 12/6. Wave 4 took shape in Falling Wedge pattern. It was subdivided into 9 minor waves, and retraced half of length of wave 3. Wave 5 reached the peak at 633.21 on 23/10/2009. The peak was the same as that of wave I, and nearly as high as that of wave I in the previous cycle. According to Top Head and Shoulders pattern that has lasted since 2003, the peak of prior wave I or the peak of Left Shouder is a very strong resistance level for impulse waves of the next cycle. This resistance level did prove efficient to stem the advance of new impulse wave I.

[IMG]http://******.net/uploads/news/2010_12/tn_7.jpg[/IMG]

Figure 7

- Wave II is clearly corrective and composed of three waves labeled [A], [B], and [C] which were subdivided into 5-3-5 waves in lesser degree respectively (Figure 8).
Wave A retraced 50% of wave I from the peak of 633.21 to the valley of 427 on 17/12/2009, wave B retraced 61.8% of wave A and peaked at 551.4 on 6/5/2010. Wave C consisted of 5 waves, and may end at 419.98 points.

[IMG]http://******.net/uploads/news/2010_12/tn_8.jpg[/IMG]

Figure 8

II. VNIndex Forecasting
1. A period of growth of the second cycle – Wave 3 of supercycle
Theoretically, wave 3 is never the shortest among waves 1, 3, and 5. In fact, it is normally the longest. Thus, there are 2 scenarios for the peak of wave 3 of supercycle as well as that of wave 5 of cycle.
Scenario 1: Wave 1 of supercycle is the longest; wave 3 is next, and wave 5 is the shortest.
Then, the peak of wave 3 will stay around 1000-1100 points, getting 80% of length of wave 1 in the next 28 months.
Scenario 2: Wave 3 of supercycle is the longest; wave 1 is next, and wave 5 is the shortest.
Then, the peak of wave 3 will stay around 1600 points, getting 1.25 of length of wave 1 in the next 42 months.
Probability of two scenarios:
Wave 1 started in 10/2003 and ended in 10/2007. This is the period when the market became heated, growing, and hike. Great attention from the whole society was paid to the market. Hot money also came to swamp this infant market. Therefore, it is possible to say that this period is the most prosperous period so far, and wave 1 is the longest. The first scenario thus has higher probability.

2. The end-point of wave 2 of current cycle.
The stock market suffered a crash that lasted from 10/2007 until 2/2009 when VNIndex bottomed out at 235 points. VNIndex then rose back and peaked top of wave 1 at 633 points on 23/10/2009. Corrective wave 2 then occurred and has lasted for 14 months, with recent valley at 419.98 points. Compared to the peak, Index decreased by about 213 points for such duration, which indicates that falling rate of VNIndex was very slow, the slope slant about 62 degrees compared to vertical axis.
VNIndex witnessed sharp decline in wave A, wave b of wave B, wave 1 and wave 3 of wave C. The rest increased, decreased slowly or meandered sideways. In conclusion, the pressing force of VNIndex was weak as results of:
- Psychology of investors had been well-prepared.
- Supply force did not dominate the demand, except the declining waves aforementioned. Though the economy was in bad shape, the market was supported by the limited supply of large-capitalized stocks, which has significant influence on the market average. As a result, with the same level of VNIndex, the majority of listed stocks have much lower prices than before. Or else, the price decrease of mid and small capitalized stocks compensated for the price increase of “big” stocks. Hence, weak supply force was also caused by the psychology of cheap price.
After a heavy fall, wave 3 of wave C ended at 421.3 points, forming wave 4. The market was then traded in the range of 440-470 for an extended period and fell to make recent valley at 419.98 points. Total volume is at low level, the falling rate was slow down. On 23/11/2010, VNIndex fell to 419.98 on low volume. These signal that the bottom forming process was taking place.
On the chart, Double Bottom pattern was formed, and wave 5 (temporary) was truncated. this indicated that the trend is weak and that the market will show acceleration in the opposite direction.
All the above factors such as accumulating volume, weak supply, double bottom pattern, and truncated wave 5 supported reversal and a new big gain. As expected, VNIndex started rising on increasingly heavy volume. VNIndex only stopped and corrected when approaching very strong resistance level of 470 points.

[IMG]http://******.net/uploads/news/2010_12/tn_9.jpg[/IMG]

Figure 9

Based on macroeconomic factors, relationship between supply and demand, and the development of VNIndex, there are several scenarios below:
Scenario 1: VNIndex can not break above 470 yet. It will go sideways in 420-470 to accumulate in the next few months, then going up, with the probability of 50%.

[IMG]http://******.net/uploads/news/2010_12/tn_10.jpg[/IMG]

Figure 10

Scenario 2: VNIndex will decidedly surpass 470 level within a month, fit to the double bottom pattern is confirmed. Trend is up, with probability of 30%.

[IMG]http://******.net/uploads/news/2010_12/tn_11.jpg[/IMG]

Figure 11

Scenario 3: VNIndex will break below 420 with probability of 10%. the bottom will be determined by supply and demand. It could make a deep low at 390+-5 where many powerful support levels of Elliott Wave pattern and Bullish Gartley Reversal pattern converge. This process may take a few months.

[IMG]http://******.net/uploads/news/2010_12/tn_12.jpg[/IMG]

Figure 12

Scenario 4: this is a rare pattern because it is unprecedented, with probability of 10%.



III. Money management and trading tactics
1. The definition of money management.
Money management covers the allocation of funds. It includes such areas as portfolio makeup, diversification, how much money to invest or risk in any one market, the use of stops, reward-to-risk ratios, what to do after periods of success or adversity, and whether to trade conservatively or aggressively.
2. The significance of money management.
Some traders believe that money management is the most important ingredient in a trading program, even more crucial than the trading approach itself. I ‘m not sure I’d go that far, but I don’t think it ‘s possible to survive for long without it. Money management deals with the question of survival (John Murphy)
3. Trading tactics based on different scenarios.
Based on the above scenarios, money allocation and trading tactics for long, mid, and short term investors are as follows:
Long and mid-term investors:
- Buy at maximum 50%/60% of principal while VNIndex is on the way down to 420 , buy another 20% once it bounces back,
o If VNIndex continues to rise, sell 30% of shares when it fall back from 470 and repeat that action if VNIndex can not break above 470. Reinvest 10% of principal while VNIndex is breaking above 470 on heavy volume, and fully cash in after the breakout.
o If VNIndex increases shortly and then retreat, sell immediately 30% of shares while VNIndex is breaking below 420 on heavy volume. Buy with increasing ratio of the rest of money according to important support levels.
- VNIndex doesn’t fall to 420 yet, then bounces back, buy gradually 20%/30% of cash, buy another 20% while VNIndex is breaking out 470 on heavy volume, buy another 20% after the breakout, and fully cash in once VNIndex falls back to retest this level and rebounds.
Short-term investors:
- Buy 100% of principal once VNIndex bounces back from 420, invest more by using leverage on the second day of rising price,
o If VNIndex continues to rise, sell all shares when VNIndex shows weak momentum in the 470 zone, repeat that action in the next times. If VNIndex rises back strongly(in trading day), buy 50% of principal while VNIndex is breaking above 470 on heavy volume, fully cash in after the breakout, only use leverage after VNIndex retests this level and successfully bounces back.
o If VNIndex increases shortly and falls back, sell all shares while VNIndex is breaking out 420 on heavy volume, then reinvest the proceeds according to important support levels for short-term trading.
- VNINdex doesn’t fall to 420 yet, then bounces back, buy gradually 50% of principal, buy another 50% while VNIndex is breaking out 470 on heavy volume, use leverage after successful retest at this level.

Nguyễn Đình Huy Analyst.

If you have any queries, please contact Nguyen Dinh Huy at the email address: ndh_analyst@yahoo.com

Disclaimer
The information, tools and material presented in this document are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments.

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[chungkhoanvietclub]

Nói chung là t2 down một mạch từ đầu đến cuối phiên
còn ông nào thích xem biều đồ thì lòi mắt thôi
nên xem biểu đồ khi nào tt vn như thằng mẽo