Technical Analysis Presentation to Vietnam Investors and Traders

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Understanding the Markets
For the last 20 years, the global markets have become more alike than at any time in the past. If you want to study the market, you first need to know its history. Many new investors fail to realize this. Greg Morris will review how markets work and things that many investors are not aware of that should be avoided. There are many misconceptions about how markets work that are generated by the financial media and financial academia. These myths will be explained and real-world examples will be shown. A good solid understanding of the supply and demand of the market is critical to successful investing and trading.
Why Use Technical Analysis?
Mr. Morris has been a professional technical analyst for over 35 years. He lectures around the world on the subject. He has written technical analysis software, written 2 books on the subject, provided analysis and commentary for years, and currently manages over $3.5 Billion in assets using technical analysis. The goal of this presentation will be to solidify one’s belief that a technical approach to the markets is one that will be much more rewarding.
Things which are nice to know about Technical Indicators
Mr. Morris will present a detailed explanation of many technical indicators that he has used or developed over the last few decades. He will show insights into using these technical measures that you have probably not seen or heard before. All formula for the indicators will be available for those who use MetaStock software.
Overview and Use of Japanese Candlesticks
Greg Morris was one of the very first to discuss and write about Japanese candlestick analysis. He created a software program in the late 1980s that automatically identified all of the Japanese candle patterns. In 1992 Mr. Morris wrote the book, “Candlestick Charting Explained,” which is currently in its 3rd edition and available in English, Chinese, Polish, Italian, and Russian language. Mr. Morris will show you the problems of using Japanese candlesticks incorrectly and explain why they work best when used with price support and resistance level and other technical tools. He will highlight some of the common errors that traders make when using candlesticks.
Using Technical Analysis to Manage Money
Managing money is a phase of technical analysis rarely reached by most technical analysts. Many spend much of their time developing indicators and trading systems for personal trading or investing, but never take the next step of developing a complete money management system. While Greg Morris has spent over 35 years in this field, and certainly feels like he’s tried it all, using a technical rules-based model to manage money has been the most rewarding.
He will explain why he uses trend following almost exclusively and why he believes it works. Supply and demand is sometimes controversial in economics but in the price discovery process it is the only solution. One must realize that technical analysis can be used to predict or to react. Trend following is totally in the reaction phase of technical analysis. When a trend is discovered technically, then there is a high expectation that it will continue. Most markets trend 75% of the time, of course, that also depends on the timeframe one decides to work in. A technical trend following model using a basket of measurements (weight of the evidence) will help provide the discipline needed to overcome those periods of diversity that cause many to stray from their otherwise sound methods.
In this presentation he will provide an overview of the tools needed to do the following:
- Measure the market for trend following
+ Price
+ Breadth
+ Relative Strength
- Determine which assets to buy, sell, and trade
+ Ranking system
+ Mandatory measures
+ Tie-breakers
- Build a reliable stop-loss process
- Develop rules and guidelines
- Discipline
World and Vietnam Markets Current Perspective
Mr. Morris will review the current technical situation on selected world equity markets, gold, and oil. He will also then provide a technical overview of the Vietnam Index and a few Vietnam stocks.
Questions and Answers
Mr. Morris will end the presentation providing as much time as needed for questions and answers. He strongly believes this is an important part of the presentation and is most beneficial to attendees.

Gregory L. Morris

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(Vietstock) - Are you a leading porfolio manager or broker? Are you the leader of an investment firm managing hundreds or thousands of billion of dong? Why don’t you set an ambitious target: the first thing you must study and acquire is the experience and ability to manage the cash flows of dozens of trilion of dong?
We will bring you with down-to-earth knowledge and experience at the intenational seminar titled: “Using Technical Analysis To Asset Management”. This is a big opportunity to approach and learn how to use technical analysis, how to apply technical indicators to manage the enormous cash flows when investing in small markets as well as the extensive analysis methods which is approriate to a porfolio managers.
1. LECTURER
Gregory L. Morris is Sr. Vice President and the Chief Technical Analyst for Stadion Money Management, Inc., USA (formerly PMFM, Inc.).
In this capacity Greg educates institutional and individual clients on the merits of technical analysis and why Stadion utilizes a technical rules-based model to oversee the management of over US$3.5 Billion in assets in two mutual funds, separate accounts, and 401k plans.
1982-1993: Work in association with N-Squared Computing, producing over 15 technical analysis and charting software titles, many of which are actively used today.
1992: Publish a book on Japanese candlestick analysis called CandlePower
1994-1996: Be President of G. Morris Corporation, a Dallas, Texas headquartered business that provided products and services for investors and traders.
1993-1994: Be a part of MarketArts, Inc. which launched the first windows based technical analysis software program, Windows on Wall Street.
1999: Be a co-founder of MurphyMorris Money Management Co. to manage assets for individuals.
12/2003 - 5/2005: Serve as a Trustee and advisor to the MurphyMorris ETF
Fund. He also served as Treasurer and Chief Executive Officer of MurphyMorris Money Management Co, the Advisor to the Fund.
2005: Write his second book with McGraw-Hill; The Complete Guide to Market
Breadth Indicators, a book introducing market breadth analysis for investors.
3/2006: Release the third edition to his best-selling and vastly expanded Candlestick Charting Explained
2. THE SEMINAR CONTENT
• How markets work and things that many investors are not aware of that should be avoided by showing real-world examples.
• Showing insights into using these technical measures that investors have probably not seen or heard before.
• Detailed explanation of many technical indicators that Greg has used or developed over the last few decades. How to use them most efficiently and when should not?
• Using Technical Analysis to Asset Management.
• World and Vietnam Markets Current Perspective. Providing a technical overview of a few Vietnam stocks.
* Language is English - Vietnamese Interpretation.
3. THE SEMINAR PARTICIPANTS
• General Directors, Brokerage Directors, Analysis Directors, Investment Directors and Experts from securities companies, fund management companies.
• General Directors, Investment Directors and Experts from banks, credit and other organizations.
• Individual Investors.
4. THE VENUE - TIME AND FEE
* Ho Chi Minh City
• White Palace Convention Center - 194 Hoang Van Thu St., Ward 9, Phu Nhuan District, HCMC
• At 8h00 - 12h00 on Saturday – May 15th, 2010
* Ha Noi Capital
• Somerset Grand – Hanoi Tower - 49 Hai Ba Trung St., Hanoi.
• At 13h30 - 17h30 on Sunday – May 16th, 2010
* Fee: VND1,500,000/person
5. THE PROMOTIONAL PROGRAM
• Discount 10% serminar fee for trainees who participated in Vietstock Technical Analysis’ courses.
• Discount 10% serminar fee for group of at least 05 investors.
• Discount 5% serminar fee for members of Technical Analysis Club.
• Discount 5% serminar fee for investors who register before April 30th, 2010.
* Each participant will be awarded 3 free months in using VietstockUpdater (Worth VND480,000) and 3 free months in using VietstockMobile (Worth VND180,000)
* Special: Lucky draw grogram with many awards
- One Special Prize: 01 MetaStock End-Of-Day software (Worth $499.00).
- Two 2nd Prize: 02 Unleash the Power of MetaStock softwares (Worth $99.00)
- Three 3rd Prize: 03 Technical Analysis from A to Z (Second Edition) (Worth $39.95)
6. FORMS OF REGISTRATION
* Register and pay fee directly at Tai Viet Joint Stock Company (Vietstock)
81/10B Ho Van Hue St., Ward 9, Phu Nhuan District, HCMC
* Register and transfer to one of Vietstock’s accounts:
• Account No. 007.100.3121.465
Vietcombank Tan Dinh, HCMC.
• Account No. 3101.0000.760.729
Bank for Investment and Development of Viet Nam (BIDV), Phu Nhuan Branch, HCMC.
* Link to register: http://products.vietstock.vn/PTKTReg.aspx
7. INFORMATION SUPPORT
- Ms. Nguyen Thi Thu Van
- Tel: 083848.7237 - Ext: 105
- Mobile: 0987.153.004
- Email: thuvannt@vietstock.vn
- Hotline: 0909 258 268

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(Vietstock) – Vietstock is holding an International Seminar on Technical Analysis with the subject “Using Technical Analysis to Asset Management”. The lecturer is Gregory Morris - Sr. Vice President and the Chief Technical Analyst for Stadion Money Management, Inc. (formerly PMFM, Inc.). Stadion is now utilizing a technical rules-based model to oversee the management of over $3.5 Billion in assets in two mutual funds, separate accounts, and 401k plans. The Seminar is held on May 15th, 2010 in HCMC and May 16th, 2010 in Hanoi, Vietnam.
On the occasion, Mr Morrris wrote an article about “What and How Should Vietnamese Investors Study to Learn about the Vietnam Markets”. It is our pleasure to introduce to all of you.
What and How Should Vietnamese Investors Study to Learn about the Vietnam Markets?
INTRODUCTION
Emerging markets generally suffer from the lack of sufficient data for analysis, especially when it comes to long term cycles, and more particularly, secular cycles. So the question that needs an answer is: How can an investor / trader in an emerging country whose markets lack sufficient data long-term begin to learn about their market? This article will attempt to offer some evidence of a satisfactory solution to this problem. It should be noted here, however, that the author believes strongly that all markets essentially function with similar inputs/consequences and learning how markets that have been in existence for many decades will give the emerging market participant adequate information to apply to their respective markets.
CORRELATIONS
Correlations are useful because they can indicate a predictive relationship that can be exploited in practice. Correlation in reference to this article refers to the relationship between two data series in a manner that probabilistically shows they are not random. A good example that is not related to statistics or the markets might be the generally accepted correlation of college educations with incomes. The data generally shows that income is correlated to education.
With the advent and growing capability of the internet, world news coverage, global information readily available to everyone ever where, markets have been on a continuous track of rising correlations. This fact is further documented in a recent paper by McGill University and University of Houston researchers, entitled “Is the Potential for International Diversification Disappearing?” (March 16, 2010) To quote a few lines from their summary:
“For developed markets, the average correlation with other developed markets is higher than the average correlation with emerging markets. For emerging markets, the correlation with developed markets is generally somewhat higher than with the correlation with the other emerging markets. However, the differences are small; together with the upward trend in correlation this evidence therefore clearly contradicts the decoupling hypothesis.”
While the paper was created in regard to how international holdings in a portfolio might not offer the diversification expected, I also see it as a message that international markets are rising in their correlation to each other, and henceforth, can offer educational benefits to those in emerging and short life span markets, such as Vietnam.
Below is a series of charts (Figure A) showing various correlations between developed markets, emerging markets, and the correlation of both developed and emerging markets. Clearly, correlations are on the rise over the last 35 years. One would expect that this trend will continue.

Figure A

Therefore, back to the question of how Vietnam investors and traders can learn about how their market can be expected to work into the future can be derived by studying other markets that have a longer history.
EXAMPLES
Chart 1 below shows the VN Index (black) and the S&P 500 Index (blue) in the top plot and their annual correlation (red) in the lower plot. Whenever the red line is above zero it means there is some correlation and the higher the red line, the more correlated they two indices are. You can see that in bullish moves the two are fairly well correlated, while in bear markets that correlation disappears and at times is inversely correlated. This could be because the VN Index stocks reacted more quickly to eroding market conditions in late 2007.

Chart 1

Chart 2 below shows a similar chart using the Nasdaq Composite (red) and VN Index (black) over a slightly longer timer period with their annual correlation (red) in the lower plot. Clearly the information derived from these two charts is that the VN Index is more consistently correlated to the S&P 500 than the Nasdaq Composite. The S&P 500 is a capitalization index of large blue chip stocks while the Nasdaq Composite contains a wide variety of issues such as large cap, mid cap, small cap, technology, etc.

Chart 2

The differences in the correlations could be that the VN Index has about 180 stocks and the S&P 500 has 500 stocks and the Nasdaq has about 2400 stocks. Suffice it to say, study of the S&P 500 over its 83 year history will probably yield much information about market action that can be applied to the Vietnam markets.
CONCLUSIONS
As trading volume continues to increase in Vietnamese stocks, I believe the correlations with world markets will continue to rise. This increase in correlation to global markets will enhance the analysis of the Vietnam markets.
The initial part of my presentation in Vietnam in May will be devoted to how markets move and react to long term effects such as secular valuation changes. I strongly believe this is important to understand when applying technical analysis to the Vietnam markets. Learning this rich history of market movements will make the movements in markets that do not have long histories more easily understandable. I am truly looking forward to visiting your beautiful country and meeting the Vietnamese people. See you in May.
Greg Morris
Sr. Vice President and the Chief Technical Analyst for Stadion Money Management, Inc.

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(Vietstock) - Gregory L. Morris is Sr. Vice President and the Chief Technical Analyst for Stadion Money Management, Inc. (formerly PMFM, Inc.) In this capacity Greg educates institutional and individual clients on the merits of technical analysis and why Stadion utilizes a technical rules-based model to oversee the management of over $3.5 Billion in assets in two mutual funds, separate accounts, and 401k plans. From December, 2003 to May, 2005, Greg served as a Trustee and advisor to the MurphyMorris ETF Fund. He also served as Treasurer and Chief Executive Officer of MurphyMorris Money Management Co, the Advisor to the Fund.
Greg has written his second book with McGraw-Hill; The Complete Guide to Market Breadth Indicators, a book introducing market breadth analysis for investors. A third edition to his best-selling and vastly expanded Candlestick Charting Explained was released in March, 2006.
From 1996 to 2002, Greg was CEO of MurphyMorris.Inc., the leading provider of web-based market analysis tools and commentary, with his partner, John Murphy, a former CNBC analyst. MurphyMorris, Inc. was acquired by StockCharts.com, Inc. in October, 2002. In 1999, Greg and three associates started MurphyMorris Money Management Co. to manage assets for individuals. This focus was later changed to address the firm becoming the Advisor to the MurphyMorris ETF Fund in January, 2004, and later merged into the PMFM family of funds.
From 1994 to 1996, he was President of G. Morris Corporation, a Dallas, Texas headquartered business that provided products and services for investors and traders. His lead product was a series of over 450 Indicators & Trading Systems that supported most windows-based technical analysis software packages. From 1993 to 1994, Greg was part of MarketArts, Inc. which launched the first windows-based technical analysis software program, Windows on Wall Street.
In 1992 he published a book on Japanese candlestick analysis called CandlePower, now available in soft cover as Candlestick Charting Explained (McGraw-Hill). Widely recognized as an expert on candlesticks and the developer of candlestick filtering, he has lectured around the world on the subject. In May, 1989, he was awarded outstanding alumni for 1989 from Pratt County College. From 1982 until 1993, he worked in association with N-Squared Computing, producing over 15 technical analysis and charting software titles, many of which are actively used today.
He graduated from the University of Texas at Austin in 1971, has a BS degree in Aerospace Engineering, has authored numerous investment-related articles, speaks at numerous seminars and investment groups, appeared many times on Financial News Network (FNN), Fox Business, CNBC, and Bloomberg TV. Greg was featured in Business Week in July 2008. Greg was invited to Italy, Brazil, Canada, and China in 2008 to lecture on the merits of technical market analysis. From 1971 to 1977, he was a Navy F-4 fighter pilot aboard USS Independence who was selected for, and graduated from, the Navy Fighter Weapons School known as Top Gun. Married with two adult children (both engineers) and two step children, Greg and his wife, Laura, live in the mountains of North Georgia.