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16-10-2009 12:50 AM #11
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New York Empire Factory Index Surges to 5-Year High (Update1)
By Bob Willis
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing in the New York region expanded in October for a third straight month, reinforcing signs that factories are helping pull the economy out of the worst recession in seven decades.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index soared to 34.6, the highest since mid-2004, from 18.9 in September,
the bank said today, marking the first time the measure has shown expansion for at least three months since a period ending in January 2008. Readings above zero for the Empire State index signal manufacturing is growing.
Government stimulus measures such as highway repairs and an auto trade-in program, record inventory cutbacks that set the stage for renewed production and a revival in overseas demand are helping factories expand again. Stabilization in manufacturing is one reason economists estimate that growth resumed last quarter.
“The recovery is picking up steam here, at least in the New York area,” said Tim Quinlan, an economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “It looks like manufacturing workers are being called back, and that means higher demand for production.”
Economists forecast the Empire manufacturing gauge would drop to 17.3, according to the median of 50 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from 12 to 22.1.
Manufacturers account for 6 percent of New York’s $1.1 trillion economy.
Inflation, Jobs
A Labor Department report today showed the cost of living in the U.S. rose at a slower pace in September, indicating inflation will not be a threat as the economy recovers. Another report, also from the department, showed the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level in nine months, a sign the improving economy is leading to a slowdown in firings.
Stock-index futures trimmed earlier losses after the reports. The contract on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 0.4 percent to 1,083.40 at 9:06 a.m. in New York. It was down 0.7 percent earlier in the day as earnings at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. disappointed some investors.
The Philadelphia Fed may say today at 10 a.m. that manufacturing in that region also expanded for a third consecutive month in October, according to the survey median.
The Institute for Supply Management’s national manufacturing gauge showed expansion for August and September, the first back-to-back gain since a period ending in November 2007.
New Orders
The New York Fed’s gauge of new orders rose to 30.8 from 19.8, while a measure of shipments rose to 35.1 from 5.3. The inventory index rose to minus 18.2 from minus 25, showing a slower pace of drawdown, and a measure of employment rebounded to 10.4 from minus 8.3.
A gauge of prices paid dipped to 19.5 from 20.2, while prices received fell to minus 5.2 from minus 3.6.
Factory executives in the New York Fed’s district, which encompasses New York state, northern New Jersey and one county in Connecticut, were more optimistic about the future. The gauge measuring the manufacturing outlook six months ahead rose to 55.7 from 52.3.
Armonk, New York-based International Business Machines Corp. on Sept. 8 reiterated its profit forecast for this year, signaling the world’s largest computer-services provider can continue to increase earnings even amid the slow economy.
‘Investing Heavily’
“We have invested heavily in the software area and improved the performance of the services area,” Jesse Greene, IBM’s vice president of financial management, said in an interview in August. “The key is to keep investing through difficult times.”
Owens Corning Inc., the largest U.S. maker of insulation, raised its forecast for free cash flow this year by 25 percent to $250 million amid increasing sales at the roofing division.
“Given the environment and the things that have been on our plate, we think healing up our net debt position and generating a lot of free cash flow in 2009 is a significant positive achievement,” Michael Thaman, chief executive officer at the Toledo, Ohio-based company, said Oct. 1 in a Webcast presentation.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at net">bwillis@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 15, 2009 09:17 EDTLast edited by Nang luong moi VN; 16-10-2009 at 01:11 AM.
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