Vietnam’s benchmark stock index, Asia’s worst performer this quarter, may rally at least 50 percent in 2010 as the economy rebounds, according to Thang Long Securities Inc, the nation’s biggest brokerage.
The economy expanded at the fastest pace in at least a year in the fourth quarter as lending growth fueled construction and consumer sales, the government said Thursday. The Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange’s VN Index fell 0.1 percent Thursday, extending the quarter’s decline to 1.9 percent. In 2009, the gauge surged 57 percent, rebounding from a record 66 percent slump last year.
“In 2010, investors’ confidence will definitely be much better because the economy is on a recovery trend,” Quach Manh Hao, Vice General Director at Hanoi-based Thang Long Securities, said by e-mail Thursday. “The economy will grow well next year” with the “one-digit inflation target” set by the government, Hao said.
Vietnam’s economy grew 6.9 percent from a year earlier after a revised 6.04 percent gain in the previous three months, according to the General Statistics Office. For the year, the economy expanded 5.32 percent, down from 6.18 percent in 2008.
Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung’s decision on Wednesday to shut of all 20 gold trading floors in the country by March 30 will also boost stocks, said Pham Linh, General Director at Hanoi - based Vietnam International Securities Company.
Switch to stocks
“When investors cannot bet on the gold floors, they will switch to securities,” he said in a phone interview.
The country also plans to boost liquidity in stocks by loosening restrictions on the sale of equities next month, Vu Bang, chairman of the State Securities Commission, said in an interview Wednesday in Hanoi.
The regulator will reduce by one day the minimum period in which buyers have to hold onto shares before selling them, the regulator said. Currently, buyers need to wait three days for the purchases to clear before they’re able to sell the shares.
Linh expects Vietnam’s stocks to rise “slightly” in the first quarter before rallying in the following three months.
“Next year will be a good year for stock investments considering the country’s economic growth outlook and global economic recovery next year,” he said.