LAF: ruồi hút mật

[hoanglong08]

Cho đến cuối tuần rồi, giá nhân điều tiếp tục tăng mạnh. W320 đã tăng lên 4.30-4.40. Tính từ đầu năm, W320 đã tăng hơn 17% từ mức 3.75 lên 4.40

----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, June 12, 2011 9:44 PM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - JUNE 11, 2011


JUNE 11, 2011

Cashew prices moved up another 10 cents or so (abt 2,50%) in Week 24 !!

During the week, business was done with several markets for W240 from 4.65 to 4.75 and W320 from 4.30 to 4.40 FOB (some processors were able to sell few cents higher). Good volume was traded for Jun/Jul and a fair amount was traded for Aug-Dec as well. Not much trade in other grades but values are W450 around 4.20, SW320 around 4.20, SW360 around 4.00-4.05, Splits/Butts around 3.90, Pieces around 3.75 FOB.

In the last ten days, Indian domestic market has moved up by about 5% - so far mainly on the broken grades. As discussed earlier, Aug-Dec is the peak consumption period and some traders are building up stocks in advance.

RCN market was steady with a firm undertone. Prices for good quality spot / afloat parcels moved up 100-150 dollars a ton, especially because quantities arrived /arriving in June are small. It is quite possible that prices may ease later if / when arrivals improve (quantity and / or quality). If the arrivals are staggered over a long period or if the kernel demand continues to be strong, decline may not be much. Many low quality parcels – lower total outturn and possibility of lower percentage of white grades - are available at a discount in India as well as in origin but processors are reluctant to buy.

Three weeks ago at the INC Budapest when some people were saying 320s could reach 4.50, very few people were willing to believe that (although everyone agreed that market would remain firm for some time).. But we are there now !!

The trend of the last few months – regular buying resulting in a gradual and sustained rise in prices – has taken prices to a scary level. Unless the supply improves significantly or there is a dramatic fall in demand, there is little chance of a break in the trend.

There is nothing new to add to what we have been saying in the last few reports about the prospects for coming weeks / months. Like Apr /May, kernel shipments in Jun/Jul will continue to be lower than normal – volumes may pick up after Aug but if the spot Asian demand is strong, there will be no pressure on shellers. Only chance for beginning of a decline in prices will be in the last quarter of the year if the Southern Hemisphere crops are good but even that decline may not be large unless there is a slowdown in nearby demand and forward contracting.

Until there is some clarity on supply & demand prospects for 2012, everybody will be inclined to operate for limited volumes to avoid being caught on the wrong foot when the trend changes (as all trends do). This increases the potential for volatility and makes life difficult for everyone in the chain !!

Would appreciate your comments on the current situation, views / forecast of demand + market trend and any other news + information

Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]
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