Cho đến thời điểm ĐHCĐ, mặc dù giá nhân điều W320 đã tăng lên USD3.90-4.05 nhưng tại ĐH vẫn nhận định tình hình khó khăn do giá nguyên liệu đầu vụ giá cao

----- Original Message -----
From: Pankaj Sampat
Sent: Sunday, March 20, 2011 1:58 AM
Subject: CASHEW MARKET REPORT - MAR 19, 2011


MAR 19, 2011

Cashew prices continued to move up in Week 11 - during the week, business was done for W240 from 4.35 to 4.50 / W320 from 3.90 to 4.05 / Splits from 3.40 to 3.50 / Pieces from 3.20 to 3.30 FOB. In the last 2-3 weeks there has been a fair amount of activity for second quarter shipments with all major markets (one by one, not all at the same time). Indian market has been quiet for some time but activity expected to pick up in couple of weeks.

RCN market is steady. India & Vietnam local crops trading above US$ 2000. For African RCN, a wide range of prices being reported e.g. Benin from US$ 1525 to 1650, Ghana from 1425 to 1500, IVC from 1350 to 1450, Nigeria from 1275 to 1350 C&F India / Vietnam. Except for Nigeria, shipments from other origins have not started. Better / clearer picture of RCN prices will be available when actual shipments – good volume – start from the major origins. Despite the risk of sounding like a stuck record, we have to say that speed and timing of movement of IVC RCN will have major impact on RCN pricing and kernel availability in 2011.

There is nothing on the horizon to change the outlook – which continues to be hazy !!

On the supply side, RCN prices are unlikely to come down until flows are in full swing and shellers have replenished inventory (most processors in India & Vietnam are working partially since the last few weeks and some may have to shut operations for some time in April till they get shipments from Africa). A significant improvement in the supply situation is possible only if an efficient alternate route for IVC RCN is found.

On the demand side, there is considerable concern about impact of high prices on the usage of cashews – especially because prices of other nuts have eased from the peaks of 2010. If the demand comes down dramatically in USA & Europe, this may have an impact on demand & prices in Asia as well but if the decline is small, the Asian demand will probably take up the slack because the high prices of last six months have not had any negative impact on Asian demand (so far).

By Jun/Jul, we will have better idea of actual supply and costs of RCN plus kernel usage trends in the major markets. Depending on what happens in the next 3-4 months, we will see a new price range being established for the next few quarters. The new range might be lower than current levels (if RCN prices and kernel demand come down in the meantime) but will certainly be higher than the 2010 average.

Until then, the pattern of regular activity for nearbys will continue. This will support market around current levels UNLESS the buying in second quarter is very slow. A slow kernel market may induce some shellers come out with more offers as they would not like to keep buying RCN without making some kernel sales.

Your comments + views and any information + news would be appreciated


Regards,
Pankaj N. Sampat
SAMSONS TRADING CO
Mumbai - India
Phone +91 22 64564300
Mobile +91 98200 79015
Fax +91 22 26462346
email [email protected] / [email protected]