boiman
01-12-2008, 06:45 PM
Investors at the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange heaved a
sigh of relief at last Friday’s rally but analysts remain cautious,
expecting the market to resume its slump this week.
The VN-Index, Vietnam’s main stock index, regained
11.2 points, or 3.69 percent, to close at 314.74 on Friday after diving
to a three-year low of 303.54. The index has lost 66 percent of its
value this year.
The HaSTC-Index of the smaller Hanoi stock exchange
staged a rebound of 6.75 percent last week to close on Friday at 104.2
points. During the day, the index dipped below 100, the level it
started trading at in 2006.
“It’s now impossible to know whether the VN-Index will
fall below the resistance level of 300 points. But in my opinion, the
market remains in a downward trend,” said Nguyen Ngoc Tuoi, CEO of Kim
Eng Securities Co. “Therefore investors should think twice before
trading stocks.”
Unlike the previous weeks, sentiment on Vietnam’s
stock market last week didn’t track global markets but seemed to be
focused solely on the domestic economy, said Fiachra MacCana, research
director of the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp.
“Despite Wall Street’s recovery on November 21, the
HCMC market still retreated on Monday over growing worries about a
slowdown in the economy” said MacCana, adding investors will begin
dumping shares even more heavily if the VN-Index drops below 300 points.
In its latest report, Vincom Securities Corp.’s
research department also said the market would remain gloomy in the
medium-term. “However, investor confidence is upbeat over the five
packages the government announced to stimulate the economy, including a
delay in collecting the capital gains tax until July next year, a cut
in corporate income tax by 3 percent to 25 percent,” the brokerage said.
It also expects the market will rally in the
short-term. “If the global markets don’t post any sharp falls, the
rally may last until middle of next week,” Vincom Securities Corp. said.
PVD and steel marker stocks top picks this week
Oil driller PV Drilling (PVD) and Hoa Phat Group (HPG) could be among this week's gainers.
“Many investors have opted for PVD, which has shown a healthy recovery since June,” said Fiachra MacCana.
PVD, which offers technical services to the oil and
natural gas industry, rose 3.6 percent on Friday to close at VND72,500.
It was among eight stocks that rose on all five trading days last week.
Technical analysis showed the firm’s share price will enter a new
rising period.
Steel stocks, meanwhile, may move into positive
territory after the Ministry of Planning and Investment increased the
import tax of steel ingot to 5 percent from zero to protect domestic
makers from overseas competition.
The ministry also proposed an increase in the imported tax of finished steel to 20 percent from the current 10 percent.
Along with Hoa Phat Group, the country’s largest steel
producer, analysts expect other makers – including SMC Investment -
Trading Joint Stock Co. (SMC), Vietnam - Italy Steel Joint Stock Co.
(VIS), Viet Han Corp. (VHG) and Ho Chi Minh City Metal Corp. (HMC) –
will be best choice for small-time investors.
sigh of relief at last Friday’s rally but analysts remain cautious,
expecting the market to resume its slump this week.
The VN-Index, Vietnam’s main stock index, regained
11.2 points, or 3.69 percent, to close at 314.74 on Friday after diving
to a three-year low of 303.54. The index has lost 66 percent of its
value this year.
The HaSTC-Index of the smaller Hanoi stock exchange
staged a rebound of 6.75 percent last week to close on Friday at 104.2
points. During the day, the index dipped below 100, the level it
started trading at in 2006.
“It’s now impossible to know whether the VN-Index will
fall below the resistance level of 300 points. But in my opinion, the
market remains in a downward trend,” said Nguyen Ngoc Tuoi, CEO of Kim
Eng Securities Co. “Therefore investors should think twice before
trading stocks.”
Unlike the previous weeks, sentiment on Vietnam’s
stock market last week didn’t track global markets but seemed to be
focused solely on the domestic economy, said Fiachra MacCana, research
director of the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corp.
“Despite Wall Street’s recovery on November 21, the
HCMC market still retreated on Monday over growing worries about a
slowdown in the economy” said MacCana, adding investors will begin
dumping shares even more heavily if the VN-Index drops below 300 points.
In its latest report, Vincom Securities Corp.’s
research department also said the market would remain gloomy in the
medium-term. “However, investor confidence is upbeat over the five
packages the government announced to stimulate the economy, including a
delay in collecting the capital gains tax until July next year, a cut
in corporate income tax by 3 percent to 25 percent,” the brokerage said.
It also expects the market will rally in the
short-term. “If the global markets don’t post any sharp falls, the
rally may last until middle of next week,” Vincom Securities Corp. said.
PVD and steel marker stocks top picks this week
Oil driller PV Drilling (PVD) and Hoa Phat Group (HPG) could be among this week's gainers.
“Many investors have opted for PVD, which has shown a healthy recovery since June,” said Fiachra MacCana.
PVD, which offers technical services to the oil and
natural gas industry, rose 3.6 percent on Friday to close at VND72,500.
It was among eight stocks that rose on all five trading days last week.
Technical analysis showed the firm’s share price will enter a new
rising period.
Steel stocks, meanwhile, may move into positive
territory after the Ministry of Planning and Investment increased the
import tax of steel ingot to 5 percent from zero to protect domestic
makers from overseas competition.
The ministry also proposed an increase in the imported tax of finished steel to 20 percent from the current 10 percent.
Along with Hoa Phat Group, the country’s largest steel
producer, analysts expect other makers – including SMC Investment -
Trading Joint Stock Co. (SMC), Vietnam - Italy Steel Joint Stock Co.
(VIS), Viet Han Corp. (VHG) and Ho Chi Minh City Metal Corp. (HMC) –
will be best choice for small-time investors.